Tensions between the US and Venezuela are rising: What does this mean for the region and air travel?

By InterConsult Advisors | August 28, 2025

The Caribbean is once again at the center of geopolitical tensions. Relations between Venezuela and the United States have deteriorated significantly in recent months. What began as a dispute over maritime borders near Guyana has escalated into a military display of power that is also impacting aviation and the islands of the Kingdom of the Netherlands.

How did it start?

The conflict revolves around the Essequibo region, an oil-rich stretch of sea claimed by Venezuela but internationally recognized as Guyanese. In March, an incident in which Venezuelan naval vessels approached an ExxonMobil oil facility prompted a strong response from Washington and the Organization of American States (OAS). The US warned Caracas of "serious consequences" for further provocations.

Military buildup in the region

Since then, the situation has escalated further. The United States has deployed warships, amphibious ships, and thousands of Marines to the southern Caribbean. Officially, this is an "anti-drug operation," but analysts see it primarily as a signal to Venezuela.

Caracas responded by deploying warships and drones along its coast and announced large-scale exercises. The country is also mobilizing hundreds of thousands of militias and moving troops to the border with Colombia. The risk of an incident spiraling out of control is therefore greater than ever.

What does this mean for aviation?

The situation is worrying for travelers and airlines. Although there is no official flight ban over Venezuela, international aviation organizations are warning of increased risks.

Airlines must consider:

• Detours around Venezuelan coastal areas and Guyanese oil fields, making flights more expensive and longer.

• Stricter safety protocols for crews, especially in the event of emergency landings.

• Higher insurance costs due to the increased risk.

Direct flights between the US and Venezuela have not been permitted since 2019. This will remain the case for the time being.

Impact on the islands of the Kingdom

The ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao) and the special municipalities of Saba, Sint Eustatius, and Bonaire are located close to the tension zone. The Dutch Coast Guard has deployed additional ships and personnel to monitor the borders and combat smuggling. Migration from Venezuela also remains a concern.

The Dutch government has issued a red travel advisory for Venezuela: do not travel. This means extra caution for companies and airlines when operating in the region.

Direct flights between the US and Venezuela have not been permitted since 2019. This will remain the case for the time being.

What will happen next?

Experts see three possible scenarios:

1. Status quo: The situation remains tense, but without open conflict. Airlines must remain vigilant.

2. Escalation: An incident at sea or in the air could lead to new sanctions and stricter restrictions on air traffic.

3. De-escalation: Diplomatic talks will calm things down, but sanctions are likely to remain in place.

What should travelers and airlines do?

• Always check the travel advice from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

• Follow aviation notifications (NOTAMs) for possible route changes.

• Prepare for delays and higher ticket prices due to rerouting.

Conclusion

The tensions between Venezuela and the US are not only a geopolitical problem but also have direct consequences for aviation and the economy in the region. Vigilance is required for the islands within the Kingdom.